TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON?…ISSUED SEP. 12, 2022…9:00 P. M. EDT


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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good evening everyone!

BACK!, from our Alaska vacation.  IT WAS GORGEOUS!!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES:       2
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 1

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Welcome to the climatological “peak” of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (?).  I am going to try and explain what may be causing such a quiet season so far, further into the synopsis.

Still not much going on at the moment, however 2 tropical waves are being monitored by the NHC, one near 40W and the other near 20W.  The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability for cyclone development during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d0
two_atl_5d2
Having performed a breif analysis of forecast MSLP anomalies, relative humidity, wind shear and 200 mb winds, I have more of an interest at the moment with the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles over the next 3 – 5 days.  Currently, the MSLP normalized anomaly maps from both the ECMWF and GFS do not indicate any development during the next 12 – 96 hours.  However, the 12Z ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability Forecast seems to think both this wave, and the one located near 20W have a pretty high prob. of becoming tropical depressions.  I’m just a little skeptical on this, as through different parts of this season, the model has shown high probabilities, and the very next 24 hours, did a 180.
12Z ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 48 – 96 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_96
Some items that may be supporting this idea is for one, the wave near 40W appears to be holding off the drier air north and west of it.  Analysis of the SWIR satellite loop did not indicate at the moment any significant “arc” clouds, and convection has appeared to build over the past few hours, and water vapor loop imagery tends to indicate the dry air not really intruding on the wave.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY
56652722
79059996
56652722WV
Both the ECMWF and GFS global models seem to indicate improving relative humidity values from 850 mb to 500 mb in about 48 hours time.
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh850-3156800
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh500-3156800
The wave is currently under a radial shear pattern, which if it holds, should allow for some slow organization to take place over the next 48 hours.  Based on the shear forecast, this radial shear pattern is forecast to improve as well, along with a 200 mb radial outflow pattern developing based on both the ECMWF and GFS forecast.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
wg8shr
WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB WINDS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-3178400
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-z200_speed-3178400
IF these forecast conditions come to fruition, and the wave becomes situated underneath these conditions (centered below), we should see some type of development occur.  I will continue to monitor this wave and forecast conditions for any significant changes, as well as the remainder of the tropics.

I know everyone, even myself is most likely scratching their head wondering, WTH happened to hurricane season?  I had this question posed to me last night in one of the weather groups I’m in on Facebook.  I did find a little something from my colleague Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell Analytics.  Another colleague I follow pointed out something about the SST anomalies, which are far warmer in the north Atlantic.  Mark Sudduth of hurricanetrack posted an interesting video about this (which I will post), that  makes sense.  Not only did the video makes sense, but it got my brain going (which I can’t believe I missed this), that made me think of the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) positive phase.  The following is the question asked, and my response:

Like so many others, including myself, what’s your thoughts regarding the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season being so passive thus far?

One thing, from Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics, suggests the SST anomaly setup in the Atlantic is tending to produce the same conditions that quell the EPAC during the Pacific La Nina pattern.  From Joe Bastardi:
August SST anomalies in high impact years 1955,2005,2008,2017,2020,2021
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SST anomalies this year
UyBTuwEKPm
The severe distortion of the SST pattern has to be linked here Warm over cold is the typical La Nina signal in the Pacific and of course leads to the less active west Pac as we know. But what we actually have is an Atlantic La Nina and unprecedented at that. And more evidence that nature in some way shape or form is always trying to balance out the imbalance.

I believe a large part is what a colleague, Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack pointed out in a video prior to me going on vacation. The SST anomalies are much warmer in the North Atlantic, which has aided in a persistent TUTT. This will cause shear, and with the TUTT/ridge setup the way it has been, it’s allowed for upper level lows to back SWWD, allowing for some drier air to filter down from extreme NW Africa. When he mentioned this, my brain started in, and noticing the extreme warmer anomalies, it made me think of the IOD positive phase. The anomalies would allow for air to rise from the surface, and once they reach the upper atmosphere, they spread out, then begin to sink, which warms the surrounding atmosphere, thereby drying it out. I believe this is why we have seen that persistent, large area of dry air in water vapor imagery, as the SAL is not really strong or abundant now. Here is the video Mark made, showing the warmer anomalies north: https://youtu.be/6ZO-AKRuBrg?t=646

These anomalies were not forecast by the climate models earlier, at the beginning of the season, if memory serves me correctly.  We did have a cold tongue that developed, however at the beginning of the season, we were in more of an Atlantic Tripole setup.  The colder water has since shifted as seen above, and in the updated anomalies, has pretty much faded.  SST anomalies have cooled over the MDR, and are much, much warmer over the north Atlantic, which means maximum lift or instability resides where the warmer anomalies are.  I mention the effect of the anomalous warmer water and how it would be related to the IOD positive phase.  The following graphics shows these anomalies, and the “Hadley cell” and it’s atmospheric flow.  Air “sinks” to the west of the cell also.
SST ANOMALIES
oisst_anom_1d_tropatl_2022091100
IOD POSITIVE PHASE
iod-positive
NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE IOD PATTERN
JJAS-SST-anomaly-patterns-associated-with-the-a-IOD-and-b-IOD-years-The-boxes

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST


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