MADWEATHER: A Direct Hit


View of the Catalinas at 6:23 am MST this morning. Down at bottom is view of a small storm that made a direct hit on this part of town around 5:00 pm yesterday.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 0103 am this morning. There were just a few flashes over the metro area – have to look hard to see them.

Scattered reports of rainfall across the ALERT network (below, through 7:00 am this morning), with max amount reported at 0.31″ on Mt. Lemmon. Here at the house the storm around 5:00 pm left 0.26″ in the gauge.

The 250 mb analysis this morning (above) shows the anticyclone shifted to west of Baja. The center of the circulation shifts southward the next few days and a large trough dominates the west for the next week or so. The morning sounding for TWC/TUS (below) continues with a slight amount of CAPE, but that should quickly vanish, as drier air and fair skies dominate today.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (second below) at the airport indicate little chance for rain until early next week. Note that the huge swath of heavy rain forecast ahead of TS Lester (shown in yesterday’s post) has now totally vanished in today’s model forecasts.


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