10:45 AM | **Tropical Storm Fiona to impact Caribbean islands this weekend…potential scenarios thereafter** — Arcfield Weather

Looking ahead past the weekend, there are a couple different scenarios on the table for Tropical Storm Fiona. One scenario results in a continued general westward track of Fiona towards the Florida Straits and ultimately this could end up with the system spilling out into the Gulf of Mexico.  The Canadian model, for example, has favored this type of solution.  Other models including NOAA’s GFS tend to favor a second possibility that features a curve of Fiona to the north by early next week to a position over the Bahamas and then to a location in the western Atlantic Ocean and well off the eastern seaboard – at least initially. Beyond that, Fiona could meander for awhile over the western Atlantic and hopefully, stay out-to-sea; however, that is way too far ahead to be certain.

One main cause of the significant differences in computer model storm tracks has to do with the magnitude and timing of the intensification of Tropical Storm Fiona. When a tropical system strengthens quickly and significantly at these latitudes, its storm track tends to become more and more influenced by the overall upper-air wind flow. In this case, NOAA’s GFS model more rapidly intensifies Tropical Storm Fiona than, for example, the Canadian model. Consequently, the GFS model develops a curvature to the north while the Canadian model keeps a weaker system on a much longer westerly track and takes Fiona all the way into the Gulf of Mexico.  If there is a favored path at this point, in my opinion, it would be the “curvature to the north” track which would bring Fiona to near or over the Bahama Islands by early next week and then to a position over the western Atlantic Ocean by later next week.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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