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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
U. S. LANDFALLS: 1
2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
INVEST 98L became Tropical Depression NINE earlier today. The center was detached to the east of the convection most of the day, however recent satellite loop imagery tends to indicate the center edging closer to the convective burst. This may be attributed to the lessening of northeasterly shear which was being induced by the outflow from Hurricane FIONA. In addition, the outflow has a stifling effect on a developing system. At the time of this imagery. the center was near 15N;71W
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 TD9 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT AS OF 2100Z
Based on analysis of water vapor imagery, some drier air is still in close proximity to the depression. Based on wind shear and upper level winds analysis, shear continues to slowly diminish, however the 200 mb wind pattern is still zonal. Analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS global models agree on the pattern improving during the next 48 hours, with once again, pretty much a textbook radial shear pattern (which negates zonal wind shear), and radial 200 mb streamline pattern, both centered over the system. I am limiting graphics tonight, but both models also indicate an improving thermodynamic pattern, with an increase in relative humidity from the surface up through the mid level (500 mb) of the atmosphere. Once this occurs, based on the forecast, dry air should not be a factor prior to landfall. The models indciate an extremely moist environment. The system is forecast to traverse very warm SST’s of 30C (86F) up until landfall, and extreme values of high OHC. Values are in the 150 – 175 j/kg range. Values of 50+ will sustain a major hurricane. Given all of these very favorable parameters, I do believe R.I. (Rapid Intensification) will occur within some point of the journey, especially after the system becomes better consolidated with a solid core. Although the majority of the intensity guidance models only indicate a strong CAT 2 hurricane, I do agree with the NHC current intensity forecast and feel this will become another major CAT 3 hurricane. Right now, I am uncertain whether or not the system may be stronger, as I will need to see how fast further organization and strengthening go over the next 48 hours. From approximately 48 hours up to near landfall, the radial shear pattern and upper level outflow pattern become more favorable.
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 23/2100Z 14.7N 71.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.0N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 79.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 18.8N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.7N 82.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.4N 83.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.0N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
CURRENT 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
NHC calls for this to become a Tropical Storm tomorrow, and would become Tropical Storm IAN. Just received new info from the ATCF BTK REPORT…indications are we now have IAN.
TD9 was moving to the WNW as of the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC.
8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 23
Location: 14.8°N 71.5°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Based on the current steering layer mean, there is small break in the ridge at the moment, which is allowing for a more WNW motion. Analysis indicates the ridge to build briefly, allowing for a breif westward motion. Forecast steering layers maps, and 500 mb heights and wind speed indicate a a deep layer trof to approach sometime near mid week, which will begin to erode the western periphery of the ridge, allowing for the turn shown in the NHC tracking map. Track guidance models have come into slightly better agreement, however exact track will depend on how quickly the trof erodes the ridge, how strong the break in the ridge becomes, and strength and forward speed of the system. Based on the uncertainty near the end of the period, after the system crosses a very slim area of Cuba, I recommend residents along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to south Florida monitor this system closely, and being reviewing any hurricane preparedness plan you may have. Hopefully by the end of the weekend, I can provide a more accurate forecast track, although the guidance hasn’t shifted much. The guidance does appear to be fairly spread right now, and I prefer the NHC OFCL track, and the consensus models track of the TVCA/TVCE which overlay the NHC track.
NHC TD9 TRACKING MAP
CURRENT 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches. Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The following is my hurricane preparedness post from JAN. 27, 2022…PLEASE REVIEW:
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
I will continue to monitor this INVEST for any significant changes in forecast conditions, as well as the remainder of the tropics.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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